Development of a height-diameter model for New Zealand grown tōtara (Podocarpus totara G. Benn. ex D. Don)

Abstract

Background: Robust species-specific height-diameter (H-D) equations are necessary for the estimation and prediction of tree volume, yield, biomass or carbon stocks. In addition, information about height growth characteristics allows for the analysis of stand growth dynamics. But there is a general lack of species-specific growth models for most New Zealand native tree species considered for plantation and wood production. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop a species- and site-specific H-D model for planted lowland tōtara (Podocarpus totara G. Benn. ex D. Don).

Methods: The models were developed using data from 719 individually measured trees aged 11 to 110 years from eight different sites in the North Island of New Zealand. Two different modelling approaches, traditional non-linear and linear mixed effect, were used. The process included selecting, testing, conditioning, and extending a total of 18 different equations by incorporating site-specific tree variables.

Results: The most precise model predicting the H-D relationship was reported by linear mixed-effect models that include diameter at breast height (DBH at 1.4 m, cm) and age (years). The final model had a low root mean square error (RMSE, 0.21, m), mean absolute error (MAE, 0.16, m) and high R² (0.94), which slightly increased during validation.

Conclusions: The study demonstrated a robust process and reported the most plausible and parsimonious model to predict P. totara’s H-D relationship, which serves as the basis for species-specific growth dynamics. The reported models provide for the first time the opportunity to predict the H-D relationship of planted P. totara in New Zealand. This fills a long existing knowledge gap and provides forest growers and managers important decision-making information.